[Mark1808]

[ QUOTE ]


Mason explains above what probabilities to use given the assumptions he provided us. See Mason's "Analysis" post for an explanation.

I did not read the rest of your post.

Note that Mason himself has shown that the EV for AQ given his assumptions is 15 and he also agreed w/ me elsewhere in the thread that the EV of JJ is 40.

Again, thanks for trying.

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Both of your probabilities and therefore your EV's are wrong.

P(AorQ misses flop) = 44/50*43/49*42/48=67%
P(of a or Q) = 1-67% = 33%
P(J and Q or A) = P (J) = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = 12% * P(aor Q)=33% = 4%
P(AorQ and no J) = 33% - 4% = 29%

EV AQ = 67%(-110) + 29& (430) + 4% (-335) = $38
EV JJ = 67% (165) + 29% (-375) + 4% (-390) = $17

I am neither on Mason's side or Diablo's, I am on the side of correct calculations. Now sometimes The J and A or Q hit and the turn brings the flush for AQ, but that is very rare.

Plus plus plus, if AQ misses the flop they are done with it many players with JJ may not be so disciplined if A or Q hit and they are called (and rightly so, there is some % chance their opponent is bluffing), they may commit more money adding more EV for AQ and taking away a small amount for the times J hits the turn or the river.

I am satisfied my calculations are correct showing AQ with a higher EV and a stronger case can be made for a higher EV depending on how JJ plays post flop when behind.

The EV calculations are dependent on the size of JJ raise and the fact that JJ makes a continuation bet, as these variables change so to does the attractivgeness of AQ vs JJ.

I might also add that AQ is liable to stack up terribly against the range of hands that will reraise $150 preflop, making the call stupid for practical purposes. But would we have a 35 page thread if we were talking real life.

Thank you all for keeping me humble, your poker and statistical knowledge know no bounds.