Re: Analysis
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here's some 'elaboration':
we need to look at the amount of money each player is putting into the pot.
lets look at AQs first, using masons numbers:
67% * -110 = -73, risking 110 = risking 73
26% * 430 = 112, risking 335 = risking 87
7% * -335 = -23, risking 335 = risking 23
this is a net of 16, while putting a weighted average of 183 into the pot, for an ROI of 8.7%
repeating for JJ, using diablos numbers:
67% * 165 = 110, risking 375
26% * -375 = -98, risking 375
7% * 390 = 27, risking 375
this is a net of 39, while putting 375 into the pot, for an ROI of 10.4%
closer than most had been saying, but JJ still looks better.
of course, none of this says that masons assumptions are valid, and they most likely are not, but thats a different argument altogether.
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Uh, you basically just repeated the EV calcs I wrote in the post that you responded to. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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