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Old 11-17-2005, 07:31 PM
SunOfBeach SunOfBeach is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Minimax Consulting
Posts: 466
Default Re: Analysis

here's some 'elaboration':

we need to look at the amount of money each player is putting into the pot.

lets look at AQs first, using masons numbers:

67% * -110 = -73, risking 110 = risking 73
26% * 430 = 112, risking 335 = risking 87
7% * -335 = -23, risking 335 = risking 23

this is a net of 16, while putting a weighted average of 183 into the pot, for an ROI of 8.7%

repeating for JJ, using diablos numbers:

67% * 165 = 110, risking 375
26% * -375 = -98, risking 375
7% * 390 = 27, risking 375

this is a net of 39, while putting 375 into the pot, for an ROI of 10.4%

closer than most had been saying, but JJ still looks better.

of course, none of this says that masons assumptions are valid, and they most likely are not, but thats a different argument altogether.
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