Re: My followup
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i just relistened to the cardplayer.com broadcast and here is what we know about the situation
Second hand of the WSOP ME final table, 9 handed, blinds at T50,000-T100,000 (T10,000 Ante).
Steve Dannenmann (T5,450,000) opens UTG for T250,000
Scott Lazar (T3,360,000) re-raises to T1,250,000
Joseph Hachem folds
Andrew Black folds
Tex Barch folds
Daniel Bergsdorf folds
Mike Matusow (T7,340,000) moves all-in from the button for T7,340,000
Aaron Kanter folds
Brad Kondracki folds
I'm not sure if Matusow had any kind of read on Lazar from previous play, but seeing his meltdown later at the FT, I think we can probably include AK in his calling range.
Two kings fare very well against this particular re-raiser's hand range, even though the range is incredibly small.
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Wow, the information I had was pretty far off- how did I mix up Kanter and Dannenmann?
Now, Dannenmann was playing pretty tightly, wasn't he? Wouldn't Lazar know that? What hands am I reraising with, as the 2nd smallest stack, after a presumably tight UTG raiser opens for slightly under a standard raise, with 7 others to play behind me... including all of the big stacks? We can safely add QQ, maybe JJ and AK (latter seems less likely with Matusow's KK) ... anything else?
Given the stacks, Scenario 1 - reraising to $2.25M- may not be enough of a raise to drop Dannenmann, though it does pretty much commit Lazar all-in if he's going to play and should send a message to Dannenmann.
Can we fold Kings against an all-in from Lazar? Pot would be over $5M and cost Matusow another million to call Lazar's all-in, which means we have to be 85% sure he has Aces in order to fold (and we have pot odds to call even if he has Aces)
I think Scenario 1 is out as an option- even upping our reraise to $3M doesn't gain Matusow anything.
Does this corrected scenario give more possible weight to Scenario #2- limping for $1.25M- to see how Dannenman reacts? If Dannenmann pushes, can we fold Kings?
This also makes the pot smaller for the flop, assuming Dannenmann folds anyway as he did.
Matusow cold-calls, Dannenmann folds, pot is just under $3M. Flop comes Kd-Qh-6h. If Lazar doesn't push here, is there any way he can fold to a push by Matusow?
He'd be getting about 2.4:1 on a call... a big mistake, given the set Matusow flopped. We could also fear top two pair if Matusow limped preflop, but that only puts us at 2.3:1 against, holding the Ah.
Of course, we did reraise preflop in early position and Matusow limped, so what would he be pushing with here? Probably more hands than just a set?
So, we probably can't get away from the flop if we hold Aces, and Matusow can only get away from Kings if Dannenmann would push preflop (representing Aces) and Lazar calls all-in with Aces.
So, it seems that limping preflop with Kings doesn't give us enough information against the small stack. Pushing now seems best, given the range of hands Lazar would reraise with initially.
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