Re: Player Discussion
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I never finished high school and I suck at no limit (as well as several other forms of poker) but I am prepared to elaborate on Mason's behalf.
After JJ's raise, AQs needs to call $110
If he instead folds JJ takes the pot of $205 which includes his $150 bet
Using numbers from Mason and agreed upon by El Diablo
67% of the time AQs loses $110 (his original $40 is dead money)
26% of the time AQs wins $430 (210 + 225 continuation bet)
7% of the time AQs loses $335 (110 + 225 call of cont. bet)
EV = $14.65
67% of the time JJ wins $110 (we ignore the rest which he would have won anyhow had AQs folded)
26% of the time JJ loses $375 (150 + 225)
7% of the time JJ wins $335 (110 + 225 again ignoring anything in the pot before AQs called the reraise)
EV = 40c
This is what Mason is trying to say. Whether you like the way he ignores the original $55 in the pot when JJ puts in the reraise or not, tough nuts. That's the way he couched the problem in his head.
Any attempt at refuting my numbers will be ignored.
I'm done with this thread.
[/ QUOTE ]
Your EV calc is wrong because you're effectively saying that only AQ is capable of winning the dead money - when JJ wins you're not counting the dead money. Consistency is your friend in EV calculations ...
Anyways, El D is right, it looks like Mason only hatched out half the problem and saw that it was +EV for AQ to call and then assumed that this resulted in a -EV postflop for JJ. Whereas, in truth, the +EV for AQ is a result of the dead money (it lowers JJ's EV but not to the point that it becomes less than AQ's).
mj
p.s. I'm not buying the book unless he admits to being wrong and apologizes for the condescending tone (and even then, maybe not).
|