[Sniper]

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While I agree that network effect has some impact on growth; I do not believe that at least for the sites that we are looking at here, that there is a point where players will leave a site and it will die for lack of traffic.

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I think this is exactly what we're seeing with Paradise: I think they will die completely, or drop to sub Action-Poker levels with a hardcore of players. I guess we can see who is right from that kind of prediction: I predict it'll happen with firstly Paradise and then with Pacific. Of course, this would've been a smarter prediction a couple of weeks ago.

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Sciolist, what we are seeing with Paradise is what I'll call the Busto effect [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

A majority of their traffic was US... what they did was cut off US players deposits when the bill was signed, but allow US players (except from 10 states) to continue to play with money they had on deposit until Nov 13th. So, we will not see their true non-US only traffic until after 11/13; meanwhile, over the course of the month, their US traffic is continuously fading out as players either run out of funds, or withdraw what they had left.

They also just gave out bonus funds to what I would expect to be all their non-US players (although their T&C says it was random... yeah right). This promo runs from Nov 3rd to Dec 2nd.