[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
You're right. All the numbers add up to me raising the flop. I think as a general rule this is the right play to make. But I had a feeling that he hit his two pair and there is something to be said about going with your read. I just felt that he wouldn't bet into me with anything less than twopair here. The only other possibility is AK. So if he had AK then I made a mistake. But with me having two of the aces, it seemed less likely that he held one.

One Possibility might be if I raise the flop knowing that he has two pair. He might just call and look for a check raise on the turn thinking that I will keep the lead. Then when the 10 hits, I check behind. Now any 4,10,J,or A wins (12 outs) and I get to see the hand through. This way of playing the hand would cost me about 4000 on the flop ( I have to be careful how much I raise here because it just might be enough for him to justify pushing right there). So in essence, I saved 2500 on the hand but lost the possibility to see it through. Now I just need to figure out the % that he would do that exact call raise/check (with intention of raising turn) combo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If your read was he had 2-pair, you may have played it right, assuming he told you the truth he had KQ. The problem is that KQ and 44 are pretty much the only hands he could have that beat you. AK is real unlikely, as no one flat calls a CO raise with AK.

Since you have outs against KQ (and KT on the turn), I would just go with my overpair and hope I am ahead or can draw out. However, I can't really argue if you had a strong read, which was apparently correct.