Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
Hi Mark:
[ QUOTE ]
We are looking at the point in time that JJ has made it $150; who would you rather be the J making it $150 or the AQ calling $110?
[/ QUOTE ]
This is exactly right and may be a point that is confusing many. If Player A, who holds the ace-queen suited, chooses to fold, his expectation from that point on zero. If he chooses to play, and perhaps follows the strategy I outlined and it gives him a positive expectation from that point on, then that positive expectation must come from somewhere. In this case it can only come from Player B who holds the jacks. Thus Player B's expectation is now negative from that point on.
[/ QUOTE ]
I wasn't going to reply to this thread because it is so convoluted and filled with detailed refutations that I thought another one wouldn't do much good.
But the flaw in Mason's logic is very concisely displayed in the quoted post, so I thought I would point it out. The bold is mine.
It is true that the positive expectation of AQs has to come from somewhere, but it comes from the dead money in the pot, not from JJ. JJ, as others have calculated, has a higher positive expectation, which also comes from the dead money in the pot.
This is a situation where both the bettor and the caller are making a positive expectation play. A limit expert such as Mason should be familiar with this concept; I'm amazed that he got it wrong. He might as well be saying you would rather be the flush draw than a made hand when a made hand bets 1 BB into a 12BB pot on the turn. The flush draw has positive expectation and it must be coming from somewhere. The made hand would prefer a fold (as would JJ here), but that is not the same thing as the flush draw (or AQ) having a higher expectation than the made hand after the call.
By calling the 110 AQs is claiming his portion of the money that was in the pot before JJ's reraise. For it to be true that AQs has a higher expectation than JJ after the flop call, AQs would have to have an additional postflop advantage that Mason never claimed it had and which it clearly does not. Indeed, it would seem JJ in position has the postflop edge, although not enough to make the call a negative expectation call for AQs, given the dead money in the pot.
I am also amazed at the arrogance and condescension Mason has displayed in defending this position, all while making such a fundamental theoretical error.
|