[El Diablo]

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I'm sorry, but I have had enough. I'll let others elaborate.

MM

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Mason, here is the principle problem you are missing.

While it is +ev for AQ to call the preflop reraise and play as you prescribed assuming player B plays as you prescribed, it is still the case in which the holder of JJ has the more +ev hand.

the ev of AQ to fold preflop is 0. the EV of JJ when AQ folds is 55. when AQ calls preflop, he has made a +ev decision and wrested 16 or so ev from JJ and thus calling is better than folding but it does not mean you would prefer to have AQ.

think of it this way in an extreme example. I am playing a new game with you. we roll dice. you win when a 6 comes up, I win when all other numbers come up.

before the roll there is 1000 in the pot, I have 100 left, you have 100 left. I bet 50, at this point it is intuitively obvious that you should call the 50 because that is the +ev decision, that does not mean that after you call the 50 you would prefer being in your position rather than mine.

taking it back to our problem. JJ would prefer AQ folds to the preflop reraise (which is probably why he made it in the first place) because the fold is more +ev for him. but even if AQ calls, it is more preferential to hold JJ.

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This is an excellent explanation of the fundamental concept that Mason got tripped up on here.

Mason did one half of the calculation and realized that given his assumptions, it is more +EV for AQs to call than for AQs to fold.

However, what Mason did not realize is that even though it is +EV for AQs to call, JJ remains the far better hand.

If AQs folds, given Mason's assumptions, JJ EV is 55 compared to AQ's EV of 0.

If AQs calls, given Mason's assumptions, JJ EV is 40 comapred to AQ's EV of 15.

Obviously, given those assumptions, it is better for AQs to call the reraise than to fold in this situation. However, JJ remains the better, more profitable, and preferable hand.

Yes, NL games are definitely good these days!