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A good game theory bot built using current techniques played against a state-of-the-art opponent modeller will crush the opponent-modeller, even over hundreds of thousands of hands. The UofA learnt this the hard way after their bot Poki-X (a combination game-theory/opponent-modeller bot) was defeated in a very public competition by another bot, and then by a well known pro, so in the recent AAAI pokerbot competition they just mixed two game-theory bots rather than even try to exploit its opponent. And they won, convincingly.
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Not sure what you're (mis)reading, but according to this report, UofA
won at AAAI '06, they didn't lose. (Edit: Ah, I reread to see you reference Poki, which is a model that's a few years old now.)
Both your post, and the following post are claiming facts without evidence. I cited my evidence. Please cite yours to refute what I've said. Thanks!
UofA main poker page.
AAAI 2006 results page, showing UofA's Hyperborean CRUSHING the opponents.
UofA and AAAI on youtube.
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[I'm *very* familiar with the UofA's work, and I'm not misreading anything - I think you may just have misread my post (I agree Hyperborean won). Search for marv at the PA forums if you're under the impression I'm just some random unkown guy.]
Poki-X was their state of the art last summer. It actually has nothing to do with their 'Poki' engine which is quite old (as you said). The name Poki-X was chosen for continuity/marketing reasons. This not the same as Hyperborean (the bot which won the AAAI competition this summer), which doesn't have an opponent modelling engine at all, just a rule to choose between the two game-theory strategies (search the PA forums for Darse Billings - he's the UofA's main brain on this subject for more info.)
Marv