Re: Analysis
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Hi Mark:
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EV JJ = .67(165) + .29(-370) + .04(390) = 18
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No. If Player A folds his ace-jack suited (as we all agree he should) Player B wins $55. Thus the expectation for Player B from that point on is not what you show.
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We are both wrong, B will win $110 preflop call plus $15 blinds = $125. So JJ EV = $10.
Please check the edit at the bottom of my previous post, I think it pretty much sums it up!
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Also, I agree that the probabilities are off a little. But as stated this was done deliberately to account for possible rare scenarios which might be detrimental to Player A. (Good statisticians like to error on the conservative side.)
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The chance of J flopping as well as A or Q by my calculations is 4% not 7%, making good AQ flops 29%. There are rare scenarios that are also great for A, J hits the flop and flush hits the turn!
The point of the whole post is 7-2 can be a preferable hand to even AA given the right pot odds and betting styles.
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