Re: Analysis
Hi Masked Man:
Even though I said I wasn't going to, I just went back and looked at this post.
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67% of the time, AQ loses 150
26% of the time, AQ wins 165+225 = 390
7% of the time, AQ loses 150+225 = 375
= -100 + 101 - 26 = -25
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No. Because his alternative is to fold and forfeit his original $40. So he does not lose $150 67 percent of the time. He only loses $110 67 percent of the time.
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67% of the time, JJ wins 165
26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375
7% of the time, JJ wins 165+225 = 390
= 110 - 98 + 27 = +39
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Versus winning $55 (assuming everyone else folds) 100 percent of the time.
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Now, as the question is framed in terms of all the pre-flop already having happened, we should really consider the 315 in the middle dead money
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No. The question is framed at the point in time where Player A who holds the ace-queen suited has the option to call the raise to $150. Only if he calls this raise will there be $315 in the pot.
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67% of the time, AQ makes 0.
26% of the time, AQ wins 315+225 = 540
7% of the time, AQ loses 225.
= 0 + 140 - 16 = 124
67% of the time, JJ wins 315.
26% of the time, JJ loses 225
7% of the time, JJ wins 315+225 = 540
= 211 - 58 + 38 = 191
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This is not solving Player A's expectation to call the $110 raise.
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Now, I think the situation is far worse than this, as AQ will often pay off far more on A or Q flops and will get stacked by JJ far more than JJ gets stacked by AQ. And other considerations like JJ blowing AQ off best hand more than AQ blows JJ off best hand.
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This may be the case for most typical players. But so what. That doesn't mean that other strategies aren't available which will do far better than this.
Best wishes,
Mason
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