Re: Analysis
Hi Mark:
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We are looking at the point in time that JJ has made it $150; who would you rather be the J making it $150 or the AQ calling $110?
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This is exactly right and may be a point that is confusing many. If Player A, who holds the ace-queen suited, chooses to fold, his expectation from that point on zero. If he chooses to play, and perhaps follows the strategy I outlined and it gives him a positive expectation from that point on, then that positive expectation must come from somewhere. In this case it can only come from Player B who holds the jacks. Thus Player B's expectation is now negative from that point on.
Also, I agree that the probabilities are off a little. But as stated this was done deliberately to account for possible rare scenarios which might be detrimental to Player A. (Good statisticians like to error on the conservative side.)
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EV JJ = .67(165) + .29(-370) + .04(390) = 18
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No. If Player A folds his ace-queen suited (as we all agree he should) Player B wins $55. Thus the expectation for Player B from that point on is not what you show.
I do agree that against many players if Player A hits the flop and calls, then it goes check-check on the turn, he will have a value bet on the river. So A's expectation is sometimes even higher. But that scenario becomes much more complex to model and I felt my point could be shown with much less complexity.
Best wishes,
Mason
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