Re: Analysis
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i figured it out! i did an ev calc and finally solved this problem! first of all, we have to adhere to the scenario mason described. forget about the preflop call AQs has already made. given that there's $315 of dead money by default in the pot, AQs has HUGE ev from the flop onward:
AQs will put money into the pot when behind only 7% of the time! and only $225 when he does so. HOWEVER, he'll be ahead 26% of the time, in which cases he'll win the $225 AND the $315 in the pot! the other 2/3rds of the time he'll simply fold and not lose another cent!
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When I worked for Northrop, and we were interested in blowing up the Soviet Union, I used similar techniques many times, and we weren't concerned with no limit poker, but we were concerned with real no limit.
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i'm amazed any of us are even alive at the moment.
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i was mocking mason's analysis with this post, but it's becoming clear that it probably reflects his thought process accurately.
it seems like he looked at the ev for AQs and saw that it was positive, so there ya go, it's profitable! but he apparently didn't realize that JJ has GREATER EV in the situation. how can both hands be +ev? because he magically created a pot of $315 in dead money. he asked us to ignore how it got there, so slong and diablo did just that, but proved that JJ would STILL be more profitable given that scenario.
now mason says he gives up on explaining, meanwhile also saying he didn't even read diablo's 2nd set of equations. wow, just wow.
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