Re: Analysis
[ QUOTE ]
Numbers used below are:
[150 = money put in preflop.
165 = money opp put in preflop + 15 blinds.
225 = money put in on flop.
67/26/7 are from Mason's post re: how these players will play post-flop]
67% of the time, AQ loses 150
26% of the time, AQ wins 165+225 = 390
7% of the time, AQ loses 150+225 = 375
= -100 + 101 - 26 = -25
67% of the time, JJ wins 165
26% of the time, JJ loses 150+225 = 375
7% of the time, JJ wins 165+225 = 390
= 110 - 98 + 27 = +39
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I see several errors. First off, perspective. We are looking at the point in time that JJ has made it $150; who would you rather be the J making it $150 or the AQ calling $110? I believe the probabilities are also off, there is a 67% of no A or Q (6/50 * 6/49 * 6/48)and therefore a 33% chance of A or Q. 4% of the time a J will hit with the A or Q, meaning AQ will only win 29% of the time an A or Q flops.
AQ loses $110 if flop misses, wins $390 when flop hits and no J, and loses 335 when flop hits and J.
JJ wins $165 when flop misses AQ, loses $375 when flop hits AQ with no J and wins 390 win flop hits AQ and J hits.
So through rounding we have:
EV AQ = .67(-110) + .29(390) + .04(-335) = 26
EV JJ = .67(165) + .29(-370) + .04(390) = 18
So 26 > 18, so AQ is better! There is also the added fact that many players can not let go of JJ so easily and can't believe AQ hit the flop (especially the Q!) and is more likely to bet or check call the turn for added EV for AQ.
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