[Rococo]

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Also, let me address one other issue which is coming up in some of the posts. It may be true that a typical player might not play the ace-queen suited in any manner that is remotely close to the way I described and thus will do much poorer than what my analysis indicates. But so what. That's like saying that you would prefer your small connectors not to be suited so you won't get trapped by a bigger flush.


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This observation really gets to the nut of the problem. For the purpose of calculating the expected value of the AQ suited, you are assuming that the player with JJ employs a sub-optimal strategy and that the player with AQ employs the perfect strategy to exploit that suboptimal strategy.

When you sit in the shoes of the JJ player, however, you don't give him the same strategic advantage (i.e. playing the JJ optimally against a suboptimal strategy by the player with AQ).

This leap of logic results in an analysis where, among other things, the AQ suited never gets stacked, never folds a winning hand, etc. Thus, the AQ suited does better in your analysis against JJ than it does in the real world.