Re: help on turn please
There's no reason to cap preflop. You have no one to knock out and your a 56 to 44 dog to any pocket pair except AA or KK when your a 90 to 10 dog.
On the flop, I would be suspicious of BB's check and would consider checking this through and hoping to hit a King or Ace.
His check/raise indicates a pocket pair. Note there is no flush draw and it seems unlikely he would have 3Bet 98 or even 98s giving him an OESD.
Agaisnt a pocket pair your a 3:1 dog unless he has AA, KK or made a set in which case your practically dead. If he would 3 bet preflop with any pocket pair there are five of them that have you almost dead and 8 of them that leave you 3:1.
Lets just assume your completely dead for ease of calculation 5/13 of the time. Then 8/13 of the time you have a 25% chance to draw out. But thats with 2 cards to come. You will have to call another bet on the turn.
Your chance of making your hand on the next card is about 12.5% or 7:1. Since this will only be good 8/13 of the time anyway, your chances of winning if it comes are 8/13 x .125 = .077 or about 13:1.
Therefore, as played, getting 11:1: Fold to the flop checkraise, although a peel is close. Note that if you had not capped preflop, you would have been getting only 9:1 and you could have easily gotten away from your longshot hand.
<u> Alternately </u>
If you think BB would only 3Bet with 99 and up, you are almost dead to 2 hands and a 7:1 dog with one card to come for 4 hands.
That makes the calculation 4/6 .125 = .08 and your about a 12.5:1 dog against his range. It works almost the same, your just a fraction better.
Note if BB would 3Bet only 66 and up, your dead to 4 hands and 7:1 against 5 hands. Your chances are even worse. And 88 (or 55 if we throw that in, also gives BB BDSD chances.)
Conclusion: Peeling the flop is marginal at best.
(The TURN is a fold, even though the pot has been inflated quite a bit to this point.)
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