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First off.....hero did not panic. Not even close. Hero was completely in control of the table, the chips, and his reads. I just wanted to see how many people were adamant about going to the felt with this hand. I recently wrote a post about getting attached and then this hand comes up. Very ironic. In my post I said you need to go with your reads and make your decisions. Sometimes your wrong, but to be successful (atleast live) you need to depend on them.
For the hand: Flop comes K Q 4. SB bets 1500. I found it very unusual of him to bet into me. With a hand as strong as KK,QQ I have already said I figured he would reraise preflop. 44's is interesting and worthy of a preflop call but I think that hand is SO sneaky that he would let me keep the lead (with two big cards in the broadway zone). So I deduced that he had a K with either a T,J,Q,A. Since there was a Q out there, I decided to flat call and see if he has the stones to follow through with a turn bet. This part of the hand is debateable as I know some will say "raise and see where your at". But with me being confident with my read and staring right at him instead of his name on a computer screen, I don't feel as though I'll get any more information out of him by betting/raising then I would by observing and calculating his moves in position. Plus if the turn comes blank (A-9) then yes I go to the felt automatically with this hand.
The turn comes a T. Not a good card for me. Now literally any of the combiations that I put him on are now hitting pretty hard. From a set (TT) to two pair (KQ,KT,QTs) to a straight (AJ). He glances at me as the turn peels off and then goes to his stack and bets 5000 (into a 7000 pot). I think for a moment and dump.
I lose 3100 on the hand. I proceed to pick up pots from the rest of the table and get my stack back up to where it was before the aces confrontation and then some within one orbit.
He told me after the final table (I finished 6 ironically when my AA gets cracked by J8o) that he had KQ and didn't expect me to have such a strong hand. He was value betting his hand.
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http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1502270
pokenum -h ad ah - ks qc -- kh qs 4d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Qs 4d Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 268 27.07 722 72.93 0 0.00 0.271
Ks Qc 722 72.93 268 27.07 0 0.00 0.729
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1502286
pokenum -h ad ah - ks qc -- kh qs 4d tc
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Qs Tc 4d Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 12 27.27 32 72.73 0 0.00 0.273
Ks Qc 32 72.73 12 27.27 0 0.00 0.727
You are 27% against KQ on the flop and on the turn.
All the more reason to raise the flop. If he has Kx, you don't want to let him draw cheaply. If he has KQ, he doubles up unless you draw out.