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Old 10-30-2006, 05:33 PM
tipperdog tipperdog is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 596
Default Re: Helmuth - Ferguson Head Up Match Theory Question

David,
You asked (among other things) for posters to posit:
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a theory about what is going on in the heads of the people who are screwing this up.

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My "theory" is that your question misled people to assume that some strategic change was correct and that your challenge was for posters was to identify those changes. I assume this question bias was intentional. Quote from your original post:
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Given the above, in which of the following ways would you tend to alter your play as compared to how you would play if it was simply a one match championship?

Play tighter preflop

Play looser preflop

Make your value bets bigger/smaller

Bluff more/less

Semi-bluff more/less

Be more/less inclined to call very big bets or get involved with big pots


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Had you asked simply: "should you change your strategy, and if so, how?" I suspect that many more posters would have answered correctly.

Now, this is not to say that your question was unfair, cheating, or any such thing. But you asked "what was going on in their minds" and this is the short answer: Many posters assumed as a given, based on your original post, that some change was desireable. Rather than challenging that assumption, they started guessing which strategic changes made sense.
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