Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
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I would take the time to think it over and decide it was better not to bluff off all my chips against a top pro who is great at reading people.
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I believe most pros get a lot of chips from people bluffing into them, not from bluffing people off hands (other then in the right situations obv).
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I am young and therefore have no fear. I think that this helps me in several aspects of my live game and hinders me in other parts.
I think that I am good at giving off false tells and since AC does not know me, my false tells will be all that he has to go on if he does have a marginal call that is going to come down to that.
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It's too bad there's no realistic way to bet on this, because I'd make a big bet that these fake tells don't work (against Cunningham) the way you think/hope they do.
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In reality, I think that since he does not know me his decission to fold will be based on the fact that I have played my hand like a set
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This wouldn't look like a set to me. It's conceivable you'd play a set like that, but it's not like your line screams "set."
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Given my reads I think Pf and flop are completely standard.
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Sure, but yikes, what reads.
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Now on the turn I can fold, having a 65k stack or push and roll the dice that AC mucks and I have a 100k stack. Clearly I am in a much better shape with this big stack as the blinds are big enough for me to open up a bit and start applying pressure once I am a big stack.
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I probably wasn't clear enough earlier that I don't mind the push, really, because I think a lot of Cunningham's range is hands that can't beat Ax and have to fold. But I think this stack-size argument is way off; thinking of 100k as anything more than 100 65ths as good (really, less than that) as a 65k stack seems very wrong here.
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On the other hand, if my read that he will fold is wrong and he calls then I am out of the tournament 88% of the time.
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88%? You have a flush draw, right?
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After hours of conservative play I think that my feerlessness has the potential to give me a big stack and big tournament advantage here. This is the right situation for a bluff.
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Again, I dislike being consistently negative in a thread, and the bizarre irony here is that this hand is actually pretty interesting as tournament hands go, but I'm not really sure what you're looking for here besides confirmation that you made a brilliant play against a big name.
--Nate
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