Re: Big hand vs. Allen Cunningham
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It's tricky b/c the line AC takes is often indicative of either a)a mediocre hand that wants to take down the pot and/or find out it's good or b)a strong hand that wants to get more money in or confound hero into making a mistake.
So I don't hate it. You fold the mediocre hands that beat you, and you still have outs vs. the better hands. If someone has a range for this line and they can plug it in, you could find out for sure.
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if he does not fold then I am in for a wold of hurt... but I think that he will fold AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A7s, A6s, A5s, A4s, some if not all 2 pair combos. I think that A7s-A4s should be discounted because he is less likely to have them preflop but if that is the case then the 2 pair combos are also less likely. I think that AK should be slightly discounted because of the times that he would reraise me preflop.
Given these assumptions my fold equity makes this a worthwhile
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Board: Ah 8c 9d 3c
equity (%) win (%)
Hand 1: 17.1457 % 17.15% { Kc7c }
Hand 2: 82.8543 % 82.85% { 88, 33, A3s+, ATo+ }
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