Re: Perfect example from SSHE that I botched.
An interesting thing that I think is more valuable than what we earn when UTG folds 40% of the time is what percentage does she have to fold in order for it to be neutral EV. The neutral point is when she calls exactly 86.6% of the time. If she calls more than that we lose, and if she calls less than that we gain.
I don't have the calculations in front of me to prove the math.
In other words if the villian (UTG) folds more than 14% of the time, the raise is +EV if we keep the assumptions of UTG1 intact.
Makes me think a raise is certainly in order. Can we expect her to call more than 86% of the time? She has to feel that she is good here more than 14% of the time.
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