Re: Player Discussion
Hi Mark:
In my limited no limit experience, it doesn't work this way. What will happen is that if no ace or queen (or other great hand) comes, the ace-queen will fold to the jacks bet.
If an ace comes, or a queen with no king, the player with the ace-queen will call the bet and then there will frequently be no bet on fourth street. If there is another bet on fourth street, then it becomes very tough as to what the ace-queen will do -- I'm talking about typical players, not what an expert would do.
So your calculation is a little too simplistic, and it does not take into account what happens if the check raise is called or reraised. (Note: When you're playing, and you make this checkraise, there's a good chance you don't have the best hand and now it can be very expensive in no limit.)
By the way, in a recent conversation with Dan Harrington, he told me about a play he had against a young girl in a TV tournament that I think goes on the Game Show Network. His opponent made a bet in a spot and Dan folded a fairly good hand. His thinking was that she didn't have the knowledge to make a "continuation bet" in this spot, so her hand must be real and thus better than his. After the show she told him that she never would have bet there if it wasn't for the fact that she had just read his book.
Best wishes,
Mason
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