[Hielko]

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Since UTG is going to have something better than random cards, the probability that your hand is best is in fact a lot lower.

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I assume you mean UTG1.. and yes, he almost DOES have random cards. He sees almost 80% of the pots.

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The difference between 80% and 100% is significant. Also note that his cards become less random after all the postflop action. I assume that villain isn't going to the river with 100% of the hands he plays preflop. If he folds 10% of his worst hands on the flop, 10% of his worst hands on the turn and 10% of his worst hands on the river (and he folds 20% preflop) his handrange has shifted A LOT to his better holdings. Villain is a retard, but 99 isn't a good hand on this board against the top 50% of hands or something like that.