[00Snitch]

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Is the money I lose 15% of the time when UTG1 has a J or Q in there somewhere?

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yes... look at what hielko and i have writen.

the pot is 14.25bb when it gets to you on the river. according to your assumtions, if you call, you never win because utg allways calls and beats you. if you raise, 40% of the time, utg will fold and utg+1 will call one more bet. 60% of the time utg will call and we lose.

now of that 40% of the time when utg folds, 100% of the time utg+1 will put another bet in the pot making it 15.25 (not counting our raise). 85% of those times, we win that 15.25bb.

so, 60% of time time we lose our 2bb flat out because utg calls. 15% of 40% of the times we lose because utg+1 beats us anyway even when utg folds.