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Old 10-21-2006, 11:01 AM
Fiksdal Fiksdal is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 4,444
Default Re: The profitablity of a bluff

Wanna thank everybody for the answers, especially the very good posts of JaredL and AaronBrown.

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FE = The percentage of the time you guess all opponents will fold to your bluff


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Why try to make precise math if you don't know what you are talking about? If you start guessing at what percentage all opponents might fold (/random 0 100), why not try another shortcut and just guess if the whole play might work or not?



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I obviously use the word guess because you can never know this amount for certain. However, most good hand readers usually have a reasonable feeling on this number.

Saying that if you can't be quite sure about this calculation, you don't wanna use it at all: I think that's a bit off. I find it pretty useful when working out bluffs. "If I risk this amount on my bluff, how often does my opponent have to fold for it to be a break-even or profitable move"


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With the way you bet that pot you are giving the villain 3:1 on the end. According to you, you are giving the villain better odds than yourself. This is more about your villains pot odds than your EV. You really need to make it too expensive for a mid to low hand to call. I would gather to say you are going to get called way more than 50% on that type of hand. Just my 2 cents...


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This is just an example hand which I made up, the numbers aren't necesarilly reasonable.

Thanks again guys.
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