[bcubed72]

I knew my stat class was good for something!

The equation given in a previous post works for ring games; for tourneys I use:

z=(p-pi)/sqrt(pi(1-pi)/n), where

z=# of SD away from the mean
p=observed "success" rate (here, ITM)
pi=theoretical success rate
n=number of attempts

so, if you participate in 100 tourneys (average 14% payout) and you ITM 27 times, your score is:

p=0.27
pi=0.14
n=100

z=3.71 SD, which on my chart coorolates to prob<0.0002 (actually my chart runs out at z=3.59)

Now what this means is that a typical donk, playing 100 tourneys, should acheive your results approximately once every 5000 times. It's up to you to decide if that means you're good or really lucky.

BTW, 1.96 SD means that said donk will get similar results once every 40 tries. Because of this, I consider 2 sigma merely "suggestive" of an outcome, and I wouldn't call myself a "proven" winner until 3.0 sigma at minimum.