[MyTurn2Raise]

POTW: Wisconsin -6 @ Purdue

are you kidding me? I know this is on the road, but this line is off by alot. The Badgers are a covering machine and I cannot believe I haven't been riding them big...a few $10 bets the last few weeks instead of really believing.

The matchups are perfect for the Badgers.

Purdue offense v Badger defense
The Boilers are pass, pass, pass again and they've been doing it well as they are 4th in yards passing (37 in efficiency) and aaveraging 33 points per game. While that looks good for the Boilers, the reality is that the majority of these stats were racked up against Ball St, Miami(OH), Indiana St, and Northwestern. The Boilers only scored 27 verse Minny, 21 at South Bend, and 17 in Iowa city. The Badgers defense is a pass stopping machine. They are #2 in the country on pass efficiency defense (though their schedule sort of sucks, too). The good news is Wisconsin has been so strong with pass efficiency defense without gettign many sacks. The Boilers don't allow sacks. This means is business as usual for the Badgers whose coverage will hold down a Purdue receiving corps that's decent, but not lights out.

Wisconsin offense v Boiler defense
For those living under a rock, the Boiler defense sucks absolute balls: 90th verse the rush, 98th pass efficiency, 101 ppg. The Badgers bring their bruising, punishing running attack verse the smaller Boilers squad that tries to get by on speed over size. This isn't good. Remember the Arkansas-Auburn game from a few weeks ago; this will be much worse. The Badgers are top20 in running and average over 190 ypg on the ground. They will pound out first down after first down. The Badgers will control the clock and wear out the undersized Boiler D. This looks brutal. The surest way to overcome playing on the road is to take their fans out of the game by pounding out first down after first down. It's deflating.

Special teams
Edge to the Badgers. Boilers FG kicker sucks, net punting is below average, punt returns suck, kickoffs are average.
Badgers kickoff returns suck, but their punting is good, and FG is adequete.

Last year, the Badgers won 31-13 after outscoring the Boilers 21-0 down the stretch.

Dunkel index has the Badgers 17.5 points higher and the Sagarin predictor has the Badgers 17.5 points higher.
WOW!!!!!!!!!

In addition, unlike some other POTWs, I don't see the Badgers putting up 4+ turnovers unless there is a really freak occurance.