wanted to talk it over with someone else who hasnt read any other responses, which is what grunding comes from and i know hed make an opinion based on reading just the OP.
so heres our convo
GrunchCan: shoot
The Machine 2p2: ok
The Machine 2p2: link
The Machine 2p2:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=0#Post7726813
GrunchCan: let's see...
The Machine 2p2: i think betting the turn is bad here only because it bloats the pot
GrunchCan: i dont disagree. given the opponents stackk size, any reasonable turn bet will nearly commit him if he calls. he's going to be calling thin here and then either pushing or calling thin on the river. we have a showdown hand and I think we should be going for a small pot. check the turn, with the intention of calling many river bets
GrunchCan: now lets see what everyone else said...
The Machine 2p2: yes thats my exact though
The Machine 2p2: thought*
The Machine 2p2: everyone said to bet the turn because he could have a draw
The Machine 2p2: which is possible given that hes a 50/17
The Machine 2p2: but i still think its spew because we make worse hands fold and better hands call
GrunchCan: im not sure that many worse hands will fold since hes short. but those same worse hands will often give us a hard decision on the river when they push
GrunchCan: and we're behind more often than not when he pushes the river
The Machine 2p2: if we check the turn you mean or bet
GrunchCan: as played when he bets the turn, we're behind most of the time
The Machine 2p2: ohh yeah def
GrunchCan: but we have to call because were not behind all the time. so our turn bet put us in a position where wre have to make a bad call on the end for all our chips
GrunchCan: im not sure we can fold the river
GrunchCan: i mean as played
GrunchCan: were getting 3:1 after all, and a shortie could easily be making a desperate play for the pot
The Machine 2p2: but i feel that with a hand that is as strong as ours why not check the turn and get basically the same price if villain were to PSB river
The Machine 2p2: yeah it is 3:1 as played
GrunchCan: i agree
GrunchCan: the turn is the nexus of this hand
GrunchCan: and i like checking the turn
GrunchCan: and to all those saying "free draw! free draw!" I say, he has 9 outs, he's only getting there 18% of the time. letting him draw isnt so bad
The Machine 2p2: exactly
GrunchCan: moreover if we bet, i think we should push
The Machine 2p2: push on the turn??
GrunchCan: ya
The Machine 2p2: if he were to bet?
GrunchCan: no i mean as played
GrunchCan: hold on...
The Machine 2p2: no villain open pushed river
The Machine 2p2: c/c flop and turn and open pushed river
GrunchCan: no i meant this; on the turn, check > push > bet less than push
GrunchCan: but im not sure about pushing the turn
The Machine 2p2: yeah check is def better
The Machine 2p2: but isnt a push too much
The Machine 2p2: its like double pot
The Machine 2p2: so if we get called we should know were behind right?
The Machine 2p2: i cant see many worse hands calling except maybe a worse 2 pair
GrunchCan: no the shortie might easily call with just a naked diamond
GrunchCan: and he would be very wrojng to, which is what makes pushing good
GrunchCan: but im still not sure about pushing...
GrunchCan: i know i have pushed in this spot before, even though it was a big overbet
GrunchCan: but now i think of it, one of the reasons i do it is to cultivate my donkey lagtard image
GrunchCan: if we take that aspect out of it, pushing is probably -EV
The Machine 2p2: yeah i could see doing it where we might have villains who are aware and might note that you may be a donkey making crazy plays to set up yourself for later
The Machine 2p2: which that logic is wasted at micro levels
GrunchCan: actually, i dont think it is wasted, but thats a story for another show...
GrunchCan: and the 2p2 advice is definitely to forget metagamme at the micros
GrunchCan: and i wont try to dislodge that advice
went on to a short rant about other topics but theres some more advice and reasoning behind checking the turn