Re: Hand vs a complete maniac
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Fold, the only way the maniacs check flops is when they hit big.
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???
He can almost have anything: a flopped flush, he could be on a bluff with 72o, he could have A9, A5, 99, 66, 55 or one heart (A or K).
If he is not a total donk he will know that you know that he plays wildly. He will have at least a slight idea that you will call with an Ace or he thinks you're weak and he can bluff you out of the pot despite him playing like a maniac.
Your odds are 26:50. Now the question is of course if you are ahead 32% of the time. The biggest part of his range is a high heart card, a weak ace and a monster (straight/flush/set/2pair). Let's say the distribution is 20%/20%/60%. You beat the high heart card ~80% of the time. Let's assume forthermore that you have enough outs against 2 pair so that you win 5% of the time he holds a monster (aka 2 pair).
Chance you win (very roughly) = 20% + 20%*80% + 5%*60% = 39%. I haven't included situations where he is purely bluffing or holds a 9. Anyway, I vote for close call!
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