Re: Math question: folding an underfull
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The hand ranges you put him on are inconsistant from one street to another.
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Let's say his range is, KJs and KQs which I beat but also AA, KK, and AK which beat me
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As for the turn and why I played it the way I did, I really didn't like this guy's flop check because the way he was playing it seemed unneccessary- like he was trying to let us catch up
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You have to decide what he's doing with AA. Leaving that to one side, though, if his turn range is likely quads or trips why would you not be eager to get the money in.
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Of course if I lead the turn he is going to likely fold all pocket pairs because he's tight and knows I am too.
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So now you think he checks the flop with pocket pairs. Does he wants to let you catch up? On the turn, do expect him to bluff these pairs? If so why are you so confident in his river range?
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he is either way behind, has a lock, or has a few outs to beat me that I can see
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Pot control is not an issue here. Increasing your equity in a small pot is unimportant when you have a big edge in a big pot. Your only concern is to play the big pot as often as possible.
James
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Good points. I played with villain again and my read is still that he's tight but he plays well and knows his opponents.
While again, I was probably wrong not to raise turn, I still think when he bets strong on that river I have either been drawing dead or have let him catch a larger full.
I think he would check AA on this flop because it is likely he is up against at most 4 outs (or perhaps one of the 2 kings). Hands like 77, 99, though I think he bets the flop because giving free cards could lose him a pot that is his to take as long as no one flopped big.
So while I think he plays most pocket pairs by betting the flop, I think AA is a little different. On the river I don't think he is betting with QQ, AQ or a worse pair, he'd likely check behind thinking he's only getting action from a hand that beats him. Watching him some more I am pretty sure of that.
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