[NewGuy]

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You guys who are complaining don't even spell out all your assumptions - or clearly identify your unknowns. It's not even clear that you realize you're making assumptions, or that there are unknowns. These include the actual number of tickets outstanding, the amount actually paid by players into the fund, and the very legitimate question of whether Party has any obligation to honor the "guarantee" or the "seed contribution" - when their entire business model has been flattened by a heavy-handed action of government. And nobody has even considered the marketing and investment costs in the promotion, which now are completely sunk costs with no benefit - due to no fault of Party's.

Honestly, my impression is that you folks who were paid back actually benefited from a very nice overlay.

Now flame away - and in the usual zoo style, let the facts be damned.

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Well I'm not going to flame away or even argue that my analysis was quality, but I think that in the 1st post of this thread that I at least laid out all of my assumptions and my guesses at the unknowns. They may very well have been grossly inaccurate or unreasonable, but they were documented. Based on these perhaps optimistic assumptions, Party paid about 40% of the "full" expected value they indicated they would pay.

You could make a good argument that it would be reasonable or fair for Party to have held back the $5 Million in seed money, which would have made Final Seats worth ~$3,400 (vs the $1,800 they paid).

I do completely agree with you and Microbob that even the lower-than-expected payout resulted in a nice overlay (of about 50-100%). This was the exact reason I played in these to begin with- the expected large overlay. But people who believed Party's marketing materials were expecting a higher one.


My assumptions:
1) Full $14.5 of Monster Million prize pool paid out (which includes the $5 Million in seed money)
2) 1,000 Grand Final Seats, 10,000 Monthly seats, and 3 scenarios of 4,000, 10,000 or 20,000 Weeky seats


I would like to know which of these above assumptions or which part of the analysis below you disagree with, that's why I posted them to begin with, to see what 2+2ers thought.

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Executive Summary:

Grand Finale (May 2007) seats value = ~$5,000
Monthly seats value = ~$750
Weekly seats value = ~$200

Please note that these estimates are based on final prize pool of $14.5 Million and 10,000 weekly Monster seats left outstanding. To the extent there are fewer weekly seats, these values would increase correspondingly.


Detailed Calculation methodology:

Let W$ = Weekly seat $ value
M$= Monthly seat $ value
GF$ = Grand Final seat $ value

- 8,000 Monthly seats -> 1,000 Grand Final seats + $1 Million , therefore M$ = (GF$ x 1,000 + $1,000,000) / 8000 = 1/8 GF$ + $125
- 8,000 Weekly seats -> 2,000 Monthly seats + $100k, therefore W$ = (M$ x 2,000 + $100,000) / 8000 = 1/4 M$ + $12.50.
- Substitute 1/8 GF $ + $125 for M$ into above and you get W$ = 1/4 (1/8 GF + $125) + $12.50 = 1/32 GF$ + $43.75

So to sum up values that we know:
W$ = 1/32 GF$ + $43.75
M$ = 1/8 GF$ + $125
Total Prize Pool = ~$14.5 Million
# of Grand Final seats outstanding / to be paid = 1,000
# of Monthly seats to be paid = 10,000 (9 weekly qualifiers x 2,000 – 8,000 for 1 monthly run)
Weekly Seats outstanding / to be paid = ?

Formula for total prize pool distributed should be:
Total = Grand Final seats * GF$ + Monthly seats * M$ + Weekly Seats * W$

$14,500,000 = 1,000 * GF $ + 10,000 * (1/8 GF $ + $125) + WeeklySeats * (1/32 GF $ + $43.75)

Solving for GF $, we get:
$14,500,000 = GF$ * (1,000 + 1,250 + 1/32 WeeklySeats) + $1,250,000 + WeeklySeats * $43.75

$13,250,000 - WeeklySeats * $43.75 = GF $ * (2,250 + 1/32 * WeeklySeats)

GF $ = ($13,250,000 - WeeklySeats * $43.75) / (2,250 + 1/32 * WeeklySeats)


Final calculation
Plugging in a value of WeeklySeats = 10,000

Grand Final seat value = ($13,250,000 - $875,000) / (2,250 + 10,000 / 32) = $5,000
Monthly seat value = $750
Weekly seat value = 200

If weekly seats outstanding are only 4,000, then we get
Grand Final seat value = ($13,250,000 - $875,000) / (2,250 + 4,000 / 32) = $5,505
Monthly seat value = $813
Weekly seat value = $216

If weekly seats outstanding are 20,000, then we get
Grand Final seat value = ($13,250,000 - $875,000) / (2,250 + 20,000 / 32) = $4,304
Monthly seat value = $663
Weekly seat value = $173


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