[betgo]

Yeh, I think there are situations where a cEV+ gamble is $EV-. This occurs a lot in SNGs and of course in supersatellites, and sometimes in MTTs at the final table.

For example, I you have enough chips to make the top 3, you may not want to go allin against another big stack. Sometimes it is worthwhile to play tight until small stacks bust out.

If the payout in a small tournament is 4-3-2-1, it pays to play cautiously as in a 2-table SNG.

Brenson talks in Super System about how he learned Moss' strategy for winning the WSOP was to play cautiously earlier. Now if you are Brunson or Moss and playing in the WSOP when it was 6-30 players, then this approach may work.

I was playing at a final table where I was in 4th place of 10 with 2.7xBB. There is some ante. I push from middle position with A7s, tournament leader calls with 99, and BB, who is pot committed to call anything calls with 77. I have thought a lot about the play, because I took 9th for $5K. I probably could have folded my may to $12K. If a diamond or ace had hit on the river, I would have been in first place with an expectation of about $35K. In this case, the push was probably slightly cEV+. It may also have been $EV+, but cEV+ does not necessarily imply $EV+ in this type of situation.