Re: Week 9 wrapup
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hi there,
i don't post much but i do read your blog occasionally, i'm not worried about your current losing streak, all "pros" go through the same when favorite is winning.
however, one fault i do detect at times is your inability to predict dog line movements. dog lines shoots up closer to game time as square pound on favorites, particularly so this season. so its a lot more +ev to bet them nearer game time.
in week 9: you took texans +13, then +14.5 was out there close to kickoff, same with 9ers +10.5 when +12 was out there. altho these pts wouldn't have affected last weeks outcome, it will eventually and its -ev not to wait for a better line. i detect the same anamoly week after week when browsing through your picks.
do you see the same thing?
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Hi,
Yes I've made some mistakes in the past, esp. on small lines, not large ones (e.g. I don't consider the difference between 11 and 12 very large at all), but for the most part they haven't hurt me too much. This week I was gone all Sunday morning so I couldn't wait for the Houston line to change at kickoff. I am shocked at how large money has moved toward favorites this year (larger even than in years past) and I am adjusting by not putting in my dog picks until Sat./Sun.
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