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Old 11-08-2005, 09:04 PM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Default Re: Conjecture and Question

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Okay you say, but the guy who started with an $EV of $70 can never get an $EV over $100 because $100 is the most he can win - so are we saying then that because a player is better his $EV can never more than double when his chip EV doubles - even in a 1000 person tournament with escalating payouts and given the advantages that a big stack has?

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Actually, yes, I think that's a very reasonable thing to say. If your skill-adjusted-$EV were to somehow more than double from a double-up, it would have to mean that your skill edge had proportionately increased. But that should not be possible, as the original skill-edge estimate at the beginning of the tournament already takes into account the likelihood of you doubling up & the resultant strategic advantages.
Maybe your unadjusted-$EV might more than double, but that's not your real $EV sorta by definition.

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Even if you would double up eventually, at every point in the tourney your expected chip total is now larger after the double up. i don't think it means your EV more than doubles, but the component of the EV equation that would value the chip accumulating potential of a skilled big stack player has to take into account that he now has that stack earlier, and therefore that he will have greater chip accumulating potential for longer. I think this can outweigh the decreasing marginal cash value of the chips, but it is a piece of the equation.

I like the idea of modeling equity with a logarthmic equation. In terms of relative tourney position, I think it is fair to say as a rough starting point that

10K stack:20K stack as 20K stack:40K stack. If A doubles through B, A becomes B and B becomes A...

This is more appropriate as the blinds get larger, when it is more likely that entire stacks will be on the line. As mentioned, an early double up creates a lot of dead chips in your stack, useful only as a backup plan that alows you to push small edges, but not really that useful (think about rebuy tournaments where you are the only one to rebuy immediately at your table. The chips are dead for a while with blinds that low and no other large stack (the rebuy mentiality of course affects your ability to bully in the rare spot where you could, but the point is those spots won't arise that often early).

Atticus posts on this have fleshed the idea out well, much better than i have attempted.
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