Re: Week 9 wrapup
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I always thought that the biggest problem with trend systems was that many trends may simply be the result of random variation. Many stats I see thrown out by people trying to look smart tend to fall in this category, IMO.
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I've done my best to eliminate weak trends. I don't use any with fewer than 75 samples and those with 200 or fewer I downgrade into proper context.
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It does seem though that your system too easily evaluates a game as a 3-5 unit bet.
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When a number of very strong trends aggregate together, a high unit bet is likely. This has been the case repeatedly over the last 4-5 weeks, more so than usual. Unfortunately, a large proportion of them have lost. Remember though with systems that only evaluate games on a 1-3 unit basis that the unit amount you can play is frequently higher than in a 1-5 regime. Therefore a 2 or 3 unit game there may equate to a 5 unit game in my system.
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I am curious whether you track the success of your different grade of picks. If your 1 unit bets come through at a 55% clip, then your 5 unit bets should be coming through close to 2/3rds of the time. I'm sure you know this, though.
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I haven't done an extensive survey of this, it would just take too long. I am fairly certain, however, that correlation between unit play and success is positive and, at least, fairly strong.
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Anyway, hopefully things will turn around. The squares have to be feeling really good about their favorites now, and they have some money to boot. Hopefully this means the lines will be especially inflated and we can clean up the next few weeks.
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The thing is I've never considered myself a square or sharp. I tend to think those who laugh at the NFL squares of the world (Fezzik comes to mind) misevaluate the success such bettors do have in the LR, around 46-48%. Sure I rarely lay 4.5+ but I don't begrudge anyone for doing so if the underlying factors are strong, and that's all that matters. If I've been slow on the curve to account for these factors, then I need much work as a handicapper. The next 8 weeks will tell me quite a lot about how I need to prepare for '06.
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