Re: Week 9 wrapup
[ QUOTE ]
dont forget the more you bet, the less mistakes you make also.
as long as you can deal with times like this, you will be ok.
you seem to have a decent grasp on handicapping (your picks usually fall in line with the guys i follow) and i personally think your betting teschniques could use some tuning up, but time will tell.
cant wait for another blood bath this week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
[/ QUOTE ]
Multicollinearity, i.e. the ability of two similar trends to predict the same result, thereby artificially inflating the win probability of a specific team, is the single biggest problem in trend systems. Before every season, I will spend hours upon hours making sure I've eliminated its influence by going through all my trends to ensure no multicollinearity exists. Because so many of my trends favor underdogs, this problem can become particularly acute during periods like the last 9 weeks. I am certain, however, that I covered all the bases before the season but will go over them again all the same.
If it's a question of pedigree, i.e. the problem is the person making the system and whether it's truly valuable and mathematically sound, I scored a 720 on the GRE analytical section and 800 on the GRE math section 3 years ago. As I see it, the problem that exists within the system is the potential over-reliance on trends -- through the first 130 games of this pro football season, it is of this that I am primarily, and probably entirely, guilty. I will need to correct this in some fashion.
|