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Old 10-11-2006, 10:50 AM
BillC BillC is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 115
Default Re: bankroll concepts - risk of ruin

Your risk of ruin is approximated by a function of your bankroll, expectation and variance. Therefore as you bank changes, so does your risk of ruin. There is no "once and for all" number.

If your risk of ruin exceeds 13%, then if you can move down in stakes, you certainly should. Probably you want to keep your ROR under 1%. These numbers all come from fractional Kelly betting theory.
For more on this topic see bjmath.com, especially the risk formula paper by BillC and Marc Ingenoso.
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