Re: Odds of Party collapsing on Saturday?
Correction to the earlier point, exercising an option means using it to buy stock, so those three Party insiders were buying during a panic, not selling. Why, possibly because the IPO stock rules in Britain do not allow insiders to sell for several years. So the founders' wealth is almost entirely paper, and would be decimated by a company bankruptcy. Whether or not they will go under it looks like a move to shore up stock prices. Something like the paper millionaires that went broke after the internet bubble.
ABM Abrmo holds the paper on the $500 million credit line, which had a clause that triggered the renegotiation of terms if legislation passed in the U.S. While Party says it does not believe there will be a problem they have yet to reach agreement. ABM would be looking for very good terms as they do not have any other debt with the company and can currently walk away with a small loss. Party will need funds for the cashout, current expenditures, major reorganization, increased advertising expenditures in the new market concentrations, and financing for future acquisitions of non-U.S. facing I.G. properties. Word is they are looking for any increase to the $500 million ceiling. The problem is not the costs of the payouts, it is the costs of continuing to believe in the company, and the industry as a whole. Considering the amount of equity lost this week, I would expect the financial sector to steer clear of IG in general, on the basis that what happened in the U.S. could happen somewhere else after they invest another billion to refocus on other markets. Just too much insecurity for the Street.
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