[cferejohn]

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2) get rid of AA, KK and maybe AKs, since i'd doubt that every player would push with AA or KK in an unraised spot, especially if they hadn't been particularly aggro yet.

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I catagorically disagree with getting rid of AK, suited or no. I think this is by far the most likely hand the raiser has, just based on the fact that I think at least half of the overbet pushes I see on party are AK. This raise to me says "I'm pretty sure I have the best hand, but I don't want to be called by the blinds and have to play a flop where I might get pushed off the best hand". To me, that's AK-AJ, 66-TT (or maybe even lower pairs on the "might be a coinflip but I'm the pusher" theory). Maybe you can throw in a couple more aces and KQ, but against what has been described as a "typical tight" player, I'd be shocked if this was A9 or worse. Most party players I've played against would be more likely to min-raise or 2.5x BB raise such a hand (as well as lesser broadway cards). Not to say that such a strategy is correct (or for that matter that it isn't), but I just don't see a tight player putting in a reasonable sized stack with a hand that bad at this point, and yes, I could see some players folding A9, KT, KJ, etc. here (again, not advocating it, I can just see it).

That being said, if my range is right the only hand you are behind is TT, and you are dominating several lower pairs. And if I recall correctly, you are still alive even if you lose (you had 17xBB to his 11x right?) unless of course the blinds wake up with a hand. I think this is a call (or rather a push, since you aren't going to fold to a push behind anyway and you may as well make that clear unless you think that a flat call for 2/3 of your stack might be scarier to the blinds and get them to muck something you'd just as soon they threw away (i.e. TT, live big cards)).

I know that range is small, and I agree it *could* be something else, but I think that AJ-AK/66-TT is his hand the majority of the time, and that the relatively smaller possibilities of other hands will cancel each other out in the final analysis.

I think it's a close, but still fairly clear call. Now if you had 88 or worse, 77, I'd say it's too close to call, and then I might think about how many chips I think I can steal out of this table.