View Single Post
  #23  
Old 01-30-2006, 12:02 PM
bigfishead bigfishead is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 1,424
Default Re: My thoughts with statistics/results

Well I'm not a rebuy maniac. Tho I profess they are very profitable....for me! I decided to take a reading off my poker tracker results on stars. I have only been on stars since 11/15 and I just dont have the time to play that many so take it with a grain of salt.

Over this period of 40 $5.00, $10.00, & $30.00 rebuy tournys, these are some of the stats I looked at:

ITM finishes: 35%
avg # of rebuys for myself: 2.1 (including add-ons)
ROI: 989%
VPIP during rebuy period: 20.19%

Overall vpip 17.99%

Now some points or thoughts in regard to above stats.

Zero tourny wins. Three seconds, & 1 third place finish but not in the 45k event. These 4 top 3 finishes had 245($10r), 126($30r), 1188(5r), 711($10r), participants.

Four of these last 40 tourneys involved me getting busted out in 10th, 11th, and 20th places when there was absolutely no big need to get all my chips all-in. However, I had decided to not worry about "bubbling" the next lvl in $$ for a shot at a large top 3 stack. I think this is -EV thinking and have decided to stop doing this.

Mason gave me Sklanskys tournament book years ago just before it was available to be purchased. With that in mind it was before the "boom". The biggest thing that I remind myself of is something David wrote to the effect of: Better tournament players will wait till the have a large edge before getting the chips in while poorer players MUST take any small edge they may have to accumulate chips. I truly believe this applied back then and even more so today. But from a purely long-term ROI view.

One example is just from memory so it isnt an absolute, but at least 2 of my final tables over the last 2 months I saw 9% total flops. I prefer to be around 11-12%. But obviously I took a fair amount of pots that were just blinds and ante's and the flops were in more key situations, with an edge, generally a decent edge, not a 2-4% edge.

I have actually even quit a couple of these rebuy tourneys during the rebuy period. These were odd times when I had gone up against HUGE HUGE dogs numerous times and got out drawn sickly 3 or more times during the rebuy period and decided todays "luck factor" was not with me. These were spots like getting it all-in with AKs vs KQo, AA vs KK or AK, AKs vs KJo, AA vs K10o with K high flop 3 ways(both of them had a K)etc. Tho an oddity on the small scale, I will sometimes figure that today isnt my day when I lose 4 or more of these during the rebuy period.

However, when I see a true maniac at the starting table, (I have seen them make 50+ rebuys) I will stack off with as little as A10o against them. Rarely do I get another player in these spots as it seems like the table sees "tight boy" getting involved.

I am actually begining to wonder if I have been on a small rush or have just been playing well or a combination of both to a lessor degree. I havent actually had a 1st place finish untill 2 weeks ago at a small tournament at Binions in 17+ months. But alot of that time was at Party. I believe that after the rebuy period the players at stars are alot better than at party which means fewer bullets to have to dodge. This lends towards better overall finishes for me.

I was recently talking to Scott Fischman about this topic of quality of players between the two sites. He believed without a doubt that the players on stars were overall better tournament players and that made it harder for him to win more $$. Part of this also had to do with the structure. The lack of antes at PP and the blinds being less during the latter hours.

What that tells me is that accumulating large stacks is paramount for players like him who like to see alot of flops and push smaller edges harder. But on stars, because of the blinds and the better players combined, "lotsa floppers" get punished do to the somewhat higher aggression and the lack of post flop action therfore fewer hands getting paid off when they hit.

Does any of this make sense? I have no idea. But as I write this stuff these were the thoughts that come to mind.

Go ahead folks!! Keep making them 10-20 rebuys for me!!

Regards
Reply With Quote