[Zag]

SA125 has made a nice analysis to show that SB can't possibly have AA or KK, and I totally disagree with it. SB knows that only LAG (PFR'er) and hero are left, and hero, being tight, will probably just fold. He looks down to see AA or KK, and he thinks, hero is probably folding anyway. How do I get the most money out of LAG? If I raise now, he'll probably just fold, because we all know he likely has nothing. But if I just call, then check the flop, I know he will make a continuation bet most of the time and I can check-raise.

So the hand all hinges on what hero's hand range is for his raise. Or, to put it more correctly, what is SB's perception of hero's hand range for his raise? If, for instance, hero would make his raise only with 99+, AK, and AQs, and we assume that SB knows this, AND we know that SB knows hero would definitely fold 99, TT, and AQs to the rereraise, then we can assume that SB has QQ, KK, or AA, and hero should fold.

On the other hand, if hero's range for his raise is any 22+, AT+, A8s+ (and SB knows it), then hero has an easy call. I haven't done the math, but if we can toss in as little as just AQ into SB's range for this action, then we have an easy call, because there are 12 ways he can have AQ and only 6 ways he can have a hand that dominates us. (22-QQ and AKs are close enough to being coin flips that they can be safely ignored. In any case, even if opponent showed QQ, hero should call for the pot odds, though he is slightly behind.)