[shemp]

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I'm not going to run the numbers, but I would be moderately surprised if bunting in that spot is better than letting Castillo hit.

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there is a chapter in bp's book about this spot. depends on who is hitting/pitching obviously but in this situation i think bunting is fractions better.

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What changes things is when you know they know you are bunting and their pitcher has a good curveball -- now you have a right handed batter with good bat control who pretty much knows what pitch is coming. Deciding to let him swing seems pretty reasonable.

Then again I'm not half the manager of some of your twoplustwo denizens...