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Old 10-03-2006, 02:49 PM
Sherman Sherman is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Ph. D. School
Posts: 3,999
Default Re: 35 k on stars (is this where the good player folds ak preflop)

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I am suprised so many people say fold. First of all, this is the second hour of the $10 rebuy. Secondly, villain made a huge overbet, which is less likely to be a big pair. I think this is usually AK or JJ/QQ. I call this.

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we do not have the odds to call against a range of JJ/QQ/AK.

but thanks for stopping by.

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You are calling 25400 to win 30200, 1.19-1, putting in 45.6% of the money.

You are 45.9% against AK, JJ, QQ.

Obviously, there is a question of how often this is AQ or something and how often it is AA/KK. This is sort of a question of do I want to take an even gamble for all my chips. However, I think that in the 2nd hour of the 10 rebuy it is 2 high cards often enough to call.

Anyway, you do have odds against the JJ,QQ,AK. I appreciate your expertise with odds, and thanks for stopping by.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

431,500,608 games 0.517 secs 834,624,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.8745 % 25.29% 20.58% { AKo }
Hand 2: 54.1255 % 33.54% 20.58% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }


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OMG a .3% edge! WTF? I am all for pushing are small edges but this is too far. In a buy-in this low, my edge over the field is better than .3%. Does this .3% take into account the rake? I don't think it does. I'm all for passing on this edge and finding a better spot (say 55/45).

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You have a .3% edge if villain always does this with JJ/QQ/AK and nothing else. People were acting like I was an idiot and saying you don't have odds to call against that range, so I was showing that you do.

However, this is the 2nd hour of the $10 rebuy. Villain just made an overbet push at an early position raiser. What do you put him on? This is AQ a lot and all sorts of other junk. Against a good player, this is a fold, but what does that have to do with the situation.

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Okay, I don't play re-buys and never have. I have heard that many people don't adjust to the end of the rebuy which is essentially what you are saying may be going on here. This essentially comes down to hand ranges. Against JJ+,AK we obviously can't call. We throw in AQ and it's much closer. I don't know. I just think we can find a much better spot. You'd have to agree that a .3% edge isn't worth pushing.

FWIW - I probabaly call this in the heat of the moment b/c I'm a station who can't fold AK.

edit: i can't spell.
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