[Nichomacheo]

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I think he would have raised you at some point before river if he can beat AA99Q board.

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That is not the board.

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You have to pay him off, if for no other reason than the fact that he could read your bet as a steal.

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Most people wont min-raise to steal. There is also the point that I raised preflop, so its easy for me to have an ace here. Min-raising would be a terrible bluff in this spot. I think he calls with Ax, raises more for AQ, raises more for a bluff. That leaves, in my opinion, a nine.

How's the analysis?