I cam flying back with a vengence from a pretty craptacular Thursday and early saturday
POTW tOSU -6 @ Iowa Winner
Iowa u17.5 v Ohio State Winner
tOSU 38 Iowa 17
Sharp money on Iowa my ass. Anyway, I was drunk, only getting the occassional update, but I heard the game went as expected. I'll have to watch the tape to see how Iowa scored that much. The boxscore makes it seem like they were playing catch-up and Ferentz decided to open up the game.
Michigan -7 @ Minny Winner
Michigan 28 Minnesota 14
Didn't watch more than 4 plays. Michigan seemed in control every time I saw the score. Godd job by the Wolverines to avoid a trap game.
Penn St -15 v Northwestern Winner
Penn St 33 Northwestern 7
Game was worse than the score as Penn St thoroughly dominated but settled for lots of FGs early. Man, the big10 has some real crappy teams. Speaking of which:
Mich St -24.5 v Illinois Loser
Illini 23 Sparty 20
It hurts so good. For anyone living under a rock, I'm a huge Illini supporter/alum. After only winning 1 in the last 25 big10 games, 12 straight big10 road losses, 12 straight D1A losses, and 10 straight losses to Michigan State, I'm on cloud nine after the Illini stun the Spartans in the second largest upset in recent college history (this is backed up by biggest spread favorites). Michigan State dominated early but came away with a FG on one drive and fumbled at the Illini 1 on another. Illinois, then, took control behind a spread run attack that racked up over 200 yards. I saw something I haven't seen in the last 3+ years at Illinois: coverage sacks. The Illini got to Stanton and shook him up. So much so that Stanton had to leave the game (too bad his replacement, Hoyer, was better). Juice looked good leading the Illini. He threw a bad pick6 when he stared down his WR on an out route that got jumped, but responded well by leading the Illini back down the field to go ahead again right afterwards. Juice also led a 2 minute drill with both his scrambling ability and throwing the ball. This was a glorious bet to lose.
USC/Washington St u54 winner
USC 28 Washington St 22
A flurry of 4th quarter activity fell short of making the over. Must've been an entertaining game and I'm sorry I missed it.
Alabama/Florida u39 loser
Florida 28 Alabama 13
This one was close, but the over was the right pick and it was only a couple of easily makeable missed FGs that kept the total bet in doubt.
Mississippi St/LSU u40.5loser
LSU 48 Mississippi St 17
Hell, LSU scored enough by themselves and Miss St scored much more than anyone expected. Bad pick.
Baylor/Kansas St u42 winner
Baylor 17 Kansas State 3
Don't know nothing about the game, but the boxscore makes me feel like I nailed this one rather easily. woot
Washington/Arizona u43 Winner
Washington 21 Arizona 10
Who was that fool bragging up Arizona back in week2? Well, whoever he was, he learned the error of his ways. You could see last week that Willingham turned the corner. A big road win and the Huskies look like their program is a team that you have to put your hat on to play against. BTW, don't tell anyone but I hit 2 pac10 unders this week. That's right...Pac10 unders. Just something to think about.
Mizzou/Colorado u40.5 loser
Mizzou 28 Colorado 13
damn 1/2 point loss. I hate that. Actually, this wasn't a very good pick and it took a late scoring drought by both teams for it to remain this close to the total.
Wyoming/Syracuse u39.5 loser
Syracuse 40 Wyoming 34 2OT
terrible pick. It was 27-27 at the end of regulation, which is more than 2 TDs pass the total. Syracuse's rush success was a huge shocker here. Wyoming's pass success was somewhat surprising. Wyoming must be inconsolable after outgaining the Orange by nearly 300 yards and still losing...yikes!
Oregon -2 @ Arizona State winner
Oregon 48 Arizona State 13
Oregon offense was truly awesome again. The pass rush got 6 sacks! Arizona State had 33 yards passing and was unable to exploit the Ducks weak rush defense. I nailed the keys to this game and feel good about identifying the mismatch here.
8-5 Saturday
8-9 Week 5 [censored] Thursday!
4-1 POTW
2-2 Illini Picks
39-32 NCAAF ytd
A good comeback and some interesting observations. POTW was solid again and I really feel comfortable identifying the big edges of the week. Including last year, I'm 13-6 on POTW...nice. By wagering and winning what I consider an obscene amount on Ohio State (4.75% of my bankroll), I even booked a small win for the week despite finishing a pick below .500. Oddly enough, this was my 3rd POTW this year including Iowa. I also went 3-0 on the Pac10, so, maybe I'm starting to turn the corner on the conference that mystifies me so.
Now, to the negatives. SEC unders died this week. I'll blame BobJoeJim and say he jinxed it
. This pick has been the golden goose for the past season and first few weeks this year. This week, I went 0-4 on picks involving SEC unders. Looks like the money tree stopped giving.
I also got creamed on an Illini game. While personally enjoying the game, I don't ever remember my forecast on an Illini game to be so off. This bothers me.
Finally, how could I not see the value in Wisconsin this weekend? I walked into my parents house just before kickoff of the 11AM games and all my family was big on the Badgers.
Side note: Given what I do with my time now, I wonder if my father regrets having season-long game and ATS picking contests for NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB with my brothers and I.
I whiffed on the Badgers and I see quite a few intelligent folk around here did not. Good call
Oh well, I escape another 'bad' week with only a marginal losing record. Time to kick ass next week