Re: Useless predictions
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Nate, do you think the fact that Party Gaming is publicly traded in London will have any effect on their decisions. I guess my question is would the British authorities make them stop taking US customers.
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PartyPoker is the Walmart of the poker industry: they're all about volume, volume, volume. And an unusually high percentage of that volume is concentrated in the United States; if they cut out the United States, they're no longer the market leader. Thus, I think they'll figure "we're the captain of this ship and we're going down with it".
I do think publicly traded status is something that might encourage companies to be more careful, all else being equal, which is why I listed 888.com as the most likely to prohibit US players. They're publicly traded, BUT their player base is more heavily European, and there may be some "first-mover" advantage to the company that first abandons the US. But PartyPoker has too much to lose to do that IMO. Just my gut-feel.
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The analogy between Wal Mart and PartyPoker is true for size business compared to the rest. But the analogy ends there.
Wal Mart's philosophy is completely 'Every Day Low Prices.' Wal Mart looks at consumer promotions as 'gimmicks.' Party Poker is very focused on spending money behind promotions and advertising.
It is unlikely that Party will change it's strategy. Instead it will shift spending from the USA to other markets. Unless the liquidity generated by spending in these 'new' markets is equal to the USA the overall impact will be a contraction of the business.
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