[jason75]

Given Jamie's image (even though he's luckboxed more hands in one tourney than I have in my entire life) I don't see how we read him for 2 higher spades.

Why can't Jamie have T6, 56, T5, QT, JT . . . . ? Why can't Binger have TPWK?

Payouts were $12M, $6M, $4M. If we just figure $EV, and we say that given their hand ranges and the fact that Binger seems potstuck, we could give Jamie a 50% chance of knocking him out.

So a really lame $EV calc you could do at the table is, if I call here and Binger folds (thinking he'll do this near 100% of the time) hoping I get knocked out, how much more value do I need to get to make this a +$EV call?

Well, if Jamie is 50% to knock Binger out, what does the situation play out as?

50% Binger goes out * 2M = +$1 M
50% Binger doubles up * 50% I still take 2nd * 2m = +500K
50% Binger doubles up * 50% he takes 2nd * I get 0 = 0

So I have to guarantee myself a decision that will make me an extra $1.5 Million if I call here. If I call here and win 50% of the time, will that put me in enough of a position to win 1st place an additional 19% of the time over my current standing (1.5/8, the difference between first and third)?

Having no idea what the chipstacks are, I can't say. Given that I know Jamie had a monster stack, seems closer than I thought at first.