Re: Roulette systems - do they work?
Roulette is unique in being the only casino table game where every available bet has the same EV, even though the odds and payouts change dramatically (from even money to 35:1). At a double zero Roulette table, you are at a disadvantage of a little over 5% for all of your action (single zero table disadvantage is roughly half of this amount). The game is very symmetrical and there is a real beauty in that.
Unfortunately, it is not beatable. Over the long term, your expected loss will be roughly 5% of the total amount that you have wagered (assuming double zero). Your actual results will converge to this expectation as you have more and more wagers.
You do not need to believe me on this. For fun, you can set up a quick little experiment using MS Excel. Use the random number generator and plug your system in as betting logic. Just make sure you include the zero results, as they are the basis for the house advantage. Run a million trials and see if your actual result is very far from the expected result of -5% X total amount wagered. If it is, you should double check your spreadsheet set-up. You can see the results for any proposed betting system using this method.
While your EV (and long-term results) will not be impacted by a betting system, various systems will have different impacts on your short-term results. For example, you could look for the system that will minimize variance (for bonus whoring), or maximize variance (if you want to Gambool).
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