[iggymcfly]

I think it's more about the preseason hype than anything. Before the season, when the talking heads were going through the schedule, they were all "watch out for Iowa". "Iowa's going to be a tough game for Ohio State" and now that the season's gone for a month, Ohio State looks tremendous and Iowa looks awful, people haven't really adjusted.

Also, the home advantage is worth something. Forgetting ATS records, Iowa's 20-1 SU at home since the start of 2003 with the only loss being a three-point game against Michigan last year. Also, the Hawkeyes tend to play pretty sloppy in non-conference every year, before improving in Big Ten play. Last year, they had the 23-3 loss to Iowa State on a team that went 7-5 and the year before, there was the 44-7 loss to Arizona State on a team that went 10-2.

Still though, the Buckeyes aren't the kind of team that a good to mediocre team can beat on emotion, and the Hawkeyes have too many holes to stay close. This year's team doesn't have the talent on the offensive line or in the secondary to not get completely exploited by the Buckeyes, and even if Iowa doesn't lose another home game this year, I still agree that they should lose by three possessions to the Buckeyes.